Chuck Hagel, anti-war GOP senator, is holding a press conference on Monday, and the money is on him announcing he is entering the presidential campaign. This is a major win for almost all Republican candidates as it allows all of them to move off the "Anti-war == terrorism supporter" rhetoric that failed them so miserably in 2006. McCain is still using the "fight them over there so we don't have to fight them there" variant and his poll numbers have gone to shit. Where he was once the front-runner he nows occasionally polls third behind Romney and consistently behind Guliani.
With Hagel's entry the "allowed to waver" candidates, Romney, Guliani, Gingrich and Huckabee can start to moderate their positions to appeal to independents that they need to win a general election. They won't be "as crazy as Hagel" when they say something like "we need to begin the process of a long term staged withdrawl" or some other vague reference to end the war that appeals to Independents without alienating the base. McCain is so tied to the current surge that John Edwards' pejorative reference to it as "the McCain strategy" stuck, and he becomes the other bookend of the GOP war debate. Hagel's entry allows for an actual debate on the war during the GOP primaries and doesn't restrict GOP candidates to the two current options of "total" or "complete" support for the war. McCain is "stay the course" and Hagel is "cut and run". The rest of the candidates can pick a moderate position in between. Hagel cannot win the primaries, but I don't think that's the point. An actual debate amongst the GOP on how to end the war can only help the GOP's candidate in the general election.
Good move Chuck.
1 comment:
I'm sorry to say but I have to disagree with you. Giuliani, Romney, Gingrich and others are the ones that will have difficulty winning the primaries. I think Hagel has a great opportunity to appeal to primary voters because of his conservative voting record.
Sure, he is the only outspoken critic on the Iraq war; but, he has never flipped his position on abortion (a la Romney), he doesn't have a muddled personal history (see Giuliani, Gingrich), and he hasn't ever sold out like the other "maverick" (McCain).
None of the "Big 3" are really standing out for the Republicans right now. Chuck Hagel has the propensity to garner large support...especially considering that he's already the media's baby.
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